Iran’s currency fell to a new record low this month. On Saturday, October 3, the US dollar crossed 265,000 tomans on Tehran’s open market for the first time, the Iranian outlet Fararu reported, up 10.7 percent in a single week, 17 percent in a month, and 119 percent from 117,860 tomans a year earlier.

The slide continued into this week. On Wednesday, October 7, the dollar opened at 268,820 tomans, the energy-sector outlet Mizan-e Naft reported, putting the rise over twelve months at about 135 percent. The Basij-affiliated Student News Network reported the dollar at 269,000 tomans on October 6.

The government’s own rate tells a different story. The official “agreed” exchange rate stood at roughly 175,750 tomans on October 4, more than 90,000 tomans below the street price.

Analysis: two exchange rates, one country

For ordinary Iranians, the number that matters is the open-market rate. Imported food, medicine, spare parts and anything priced against the dollar follow it. Wages and pensions do not. A rial that loses more than half its value in a year means a family’s income buys less than half of what it did.

The gap between the two rates matters too. Access to cheaper official dollars is rationed, and those with the connections to obtain them can resell at the open-market price. In a system where the Revolutionary Guards and state-linked firms dominate large parts of the economy, a widening gap rewards insiders while everyone else pays the street rate.

The collapse is also the backdrop to the regime’s security posture this month. When the head of the judiciary warns officials not to anger the people, and parliament criminalizes interviews with outside media, they are responding to the same pressure. The leadership has no plan to stop the slide. It is preparing for the anger the slide will produce.